By Haydar Hadi
BAGHDAD (AA) – Following the defeat last year of the Daesh terrorist group, Iraq is gearing up to hold parliamentary polls this Saturday despite an ongoing economic crisis, mounting political polarization and serious security concerns.
Government corruption and a sharp drop in crude oil prices have combined to create a countrywide economic crisis. Iraq also recently ended a costly war against Daesh, which left much of its infrastructure in ruins and much of its population internally displaced.
In Iraq, which continues to face chronic shortages of basic services, including electricity and water, Saturday’s poll will take place under the shadow of deep political and security instability.
The election is being contested between 27 different coalitions made up of 143 different political parties.
Representing 183 out of 328 seats in parliament, the Iraqi National Alliance hopes to form its own coalition in the upcoming polls.
The Hashd al-Shaabi-linked Fatah Alliance, which is supported by Iran and expected to come in second in the elections, would like to form a Shia coalition with former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law Alliance.
In recent speeches, al-Maliki has called for greater political pluralism. However, Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — head of Iraq’s Sadrist movement — does not appear to be interested in forming a Shia coalition but would rather see a “technocratic” government far from religious or sectarian considerations.
According to information obtained from sources close to Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the latter hopes to unite with al-Maliki in parliament even though they are currently members of two different coalitions.
Having played a role in Daesh's defeat and the recovery of Kirkuk following last year’s illegitimate poll on Kurdish regional independence, al-Abadi currently appears to be the most viable candidate for the premiership.
Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi, however, does not support a second term in office for al-Abadi and has nominated Hadi al-Amir, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), for the post of prime minister.
The head of the Badr Organization, al-Amir is close to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and frequently visits the U.S. and U.K. embassies in Baghdad.
In recent statements to a U.S. daily, al-Amir vowed to reach out to Washington after Saturday’s election.
Al-Maliki, meanwhile, is expected to support al-Amir against al-Abadi, with whom he has serious differences of opinion despite being a member of the same party.
Ali al-Sistani, for his part, a leading Shia cleric in Najaf, has not voiced any objections to al-Amir as prime minister.
One possible scenario is that al-Abadi, who many believe will come in first in the poll, will draw up a government with the support of al-Sadr, Ammar al-Hakim, Ayad Allawi and Osama al-Nujaifi.
Iraq’s Sunnis, who suffered the most during Daesh’s three-year reign of terror, will enter the elections with multiple coalitions.
The Decision Coalition, which includes Sunni leader Osama al-Nujaifi and his brother Asil al-Nujaifi (a former governor of Mosul), consists of 10 different parties and groups.
Iraq’s Kurdish parties, which were politically isolated following last year’s unconstitutional referendum, will also take part in the race but remain badly divided.
Iraq’s second largest ethnicity, Kurds captured 62 parliamentary seats in 2014 polls: 44 seats for Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Dohuk; eight for Kirkuk and Mosul; and two for Diyala.
Kurdish parties are not expected to do as well this time around after losing significant political — and military — influence in Kirkuk and other disputed parts of Iraq.
Iraqi Turkmen, meanwhile, have established a degree of unity in Kirkuk, forming an alliance consisting of several political parties under the umbrella of the Iraqi Turkmen Front.
Along with Kirkuk, Turkmen parties will also field candidates in Mosul, Saladin and Diyala provinces.
The election also faces the threat of terrorism, with Daesh vowing to target polling stations in hopes of discouraging would-be voters.
Saturday’s poll will see more than 7,000 candidates vie for seats in Iraq’s 328-member national assembly, with roughly 24 million Iraqis registered to cast ballots.
